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基于BP人工神经网络的北京城市人口预测

发表时间:2009-02-28  浏览量:4501  下载量:2212
全部作者: 谢军飞,李延明
作者单位: 北京市园林科学研究所
摘 要: 人口系统是一个复杂的非线性系统,对人口数量的准确预测能为应急避险规划等提供重要依据。通过建立一维时间序列的BP人工神经网络模型,根据1980年至2005年的人口统计数据,借助Matlab 5.3软件进行北京城近郊区的户籍人口数量预测。检验结果显示:2003,2004和2005年预测值与实际样本的差值在�6~�7万人之间,其与实际样本的比值约为1%,预测精度完全符合要求。最终预测得到2006,2007,2008,2009,2010年的人口数量.
关 键 词: 人工智能;统计模拟;BP神经网络;人口预测;北京
Title: Urban population forecast of Beijing based on BP artificial neural network
Author: XIE Junfei, LI Yanming
Organization: Beijing Institute of Landscape Gardening
Abstract: The population system is a very complicated nonlinear system, an accurate prediction of population amount will be helpful to the planning of emergency adapting. By establishing one-dimension time series model of BP artificial neural network, according to the population statistics from 1980 to 2005 and with the help of Matlab5.3 software, the amount of registered permanent resident in Beijing city and outskirts was predicted,the result shows that the difference between prediction value and actual value in 2003, 2004 and 2005 is 6~7 ten thousand. The ratio of it and actual value is about 1%. The forecasting result is precise and effective. The final result shows that the population amount of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 respectively.�
Key words: computer software; Java; Java database connectivity; database connection pool
发表期数: 2009年2月第4期
引用格式: 谢军飞,李延明. 基于BP人工神经网络的北京城市人口预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2009,2(4):422-427.
 
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