您的位置:首页  > 论文页面

基于滚动预测和残差修正的短时交通流量预测

发表时间:2011-07-15  浏览量:1703  下载量:660
全部作者: 唐湘晋,卢俊华
作者单位: 武汉理工大学理学院
摘 要: 实时准确的交通流量预测是交通控制与诱导的前提及关键,针对可靠性原始交通流量数据非常匮乏的情况,利用灰色系统小样本的特点,运用滚动预测对可靠性交通流量的预测进行残差检验,在考虑数据新陈代谢的同时又能减少计算量。并对滚动残差的变化规律做了分析,建立其单调区间的灰色预测模型,进行残差修正,补偿原有的预测数据,使预测值能更好地拟合原始数据。最后,通过实例计算和模型精度检验说明该方法有较高精度。
关 键 词: 应用统计数学;交通流量预测;灰色系统理论;滚动预测;残差修正
Title: Short-term traffic flow prediction based on the rolling forecast and residual correction
Author: TANG Xiangjin, LU Junhua
Organization: School of Science, Wuhan University of Technology
Abstract: Real-time and accurate traffic flow prediction is the premise and key of traffic control and induction. Because of the raw traffic data scarce, based on grey system characteristic of small samples, the rolling forecast is used to make residual inspection for reliable traffic flow prediction. In consideration of the metabolism of data, the computation can be reduced. At the same time, the analysis is made for the change rule of rolling residual, the grey forecasting model based on the monotonous interval is established and the original prediction data is compensated through residual correction in order to make prediction fit the original data better. Finally, the example computation and the model accuracy test show that this method has a high precision.
Key words: applied mathematics and statistics; traffic flow prediction; grey system theory; rolling forecast; residual correction
发表期数: 2011年7月第13期
引用格式: 唐湘晋,卢俊华. 基于滚动预测和残差修正的短时交通流量预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2011,4(13):1219-1224.
 
0 评论数 0
暂无评论
友情链接