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基于遗传神经网络的安徽省可持续发展预测

发表时间:2012-12-31  浏览量:1524  下载量:417
全部作者: 许新宇,陈兴鹏,李恒吉,王亲,崔理想
作者单位: 兰州大学资源环境学院;兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室
摘 要: 针对安徽省的发展现状及面临的生态问题,运用生态足迹模型,对安徽省1990年至2009年可持续发展状况进行实例研究,并划分2个阶段:1990年至1996年为弱不可持续发展阶段,1997年至2009年为不可持续发展阶段。在此基础上,分析人均生态足迹的主要影响因素,并利用遗传神经网络模型,对安徽省2010年至2015年人均生态足迹进行预测。结果表明:2010年至2015年,人均生态足迹逐渐增大,而人均生态承载力保持下降趋势,安徽省基本处于强不可持续发展阶段。
关 键 词: 环境科学技术其他学科;生态足迹;遗传神经网络;可持续发展;预测
Title: Prediction of sustainable development in Anhui province based on genetic neural network model
Author: XU Xinyu, CHEN Xingpeng, LI Hengji, WANG Qin, CUI Lixiang
Organization: College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University; Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environment Systems, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University
Abstract: In terms of the development condition and the facing environmental problems, this paper firstly made a quantitative research on the sustainable development of Anhui province from 1990 to 2009 by using ecological footprint model. This period could be divided into two phases. 1990 to 1996 was the weak unsustainable development phase, and 1997 to 2009 was the unsustainable development phase. On this basis, genetic neural network model was used to analyze the intrinsic relationship between average ecological footprint and its influencing factors each year in Anhui, and the developing trend of ecological footprint from 2010 to 2015 was predicted. The results showed that during 2010 to 2015, the per capita ecological footprint maintains a upward trend, and the per capita ecological capacity maintains a downward trend, Anhui province is basically at the stage of strong unsustainable development.
Key words: other subjects of environmental science and technology; ecological footprint; genetic neural network; sustainable development; prediction
发表期数: 2012年12月第24期
引用格式: 许新宇,陈兴鹏,李恒吉,等. 基于遗传神经网络的安徽省可持续发展预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2012,5(24):2393-2398.
 
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