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ECHAM5和CCLM模式在长江流域模拟能力的对比评估

发表时间:2014-11-15  浏览量:1417  下载量:422
全部作者: 张杰,姜彤
作者单位: 黔东南州气象局;中国气象局国家气候中心
摘 要: 利用全球气候模式中海洋环流模式ECHAM5(European centre atmosphere model 5)和区域气候模式CCLM(COSMO model in climate mode)在模拟试验期(1961年至2000年)的逐日气温和降水资料,对比评估2个模式对长江流域气候的模拟能力,并以1978年的干旱事件为例验证2个模式对极端事件的模拟效果。结果表明:2个模式对年均气温空间分布的模拟能力相当,但CCLM模式能够准确再现1980s年均气温的变暖期;ECHAM5模式的模拟结果中存在虚假降水中心,对长江流域降水空间格局的模拟与观测实况差距较大,而CCLM模式能够较好地再现长江流域降水的时空分布特征。在模拟极端事件时,CCLM模式对主干旱过程和3个有雨区的分布格局都有很好的再现。综上所述,CCLM模式更适合研究长江流域气候数值模拟,并成为预估长江流域未来气候变化的有力工具。
关 键 词: 气候学;长江流域;气候变化数值模拟;ECHAM5模式;CCLM模式
Title: Assessment on numerical simulation of climate change in the Yangtze river basin based on the ECHAM5 and CCLM models
Author: ZHANG Jie, JIANG Tong
Organization: Meteorological Bureau of Qiandongnan; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
Abstract: The simulative ability of European centre atmosphere model 5 (ECHAM5) and COSMO model in climate mode (CCLM) in the Yangtze river basin was assessed based on the simulated temperature and precipitation data for 1961 to 2000 and was further verified by the drought event ever happened in 1978. The results showed that both models can capture the spatial distribution pattern of annual averaged temperature in the Yangtze river basin, but CCLM model can reproduce the warming period in the 1980s. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation simulated by ECHAM5 model was obviously different from observed facts and there was an unrealistic rainfall center in the simulation result. While, temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation can be described by CCLM model comparatively well. Besides, CCLM model also captured the main drought period and 3 rainfall areas during the extreme weather event in 1978. In a summary, the CCLM climate model is more suitable for simulation of climate change in the Yangtze river basin.
Key words: climatology; Yangtze river basin; simulation of climate change;ECHAM5 model; CCLM model
发表期数: 2014年11月第21期
引用格式: 张杰,姜彤. ECHAM5和CCLM模式在长江流域模拟能力的对比评估[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2014,7(21):2182-2189.
 
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