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气候变化和人类活动对石羊河上游径流的影响

发表时间:2015-06-30  浏览量:2418  下载量:1093
全部作者: 李鹏,徐建华,陈忠升,赵本福
作者单位: 华东师范大学地理科学学院
摘 要: 基于石羊河上游1960年至2009年的水文气象数据,利用滑动t检验、距平累积分析及多元回归分析等方法,对其气象因子和石羊河出山径流量变化趋势进行分析,并探讨气候变化和人类活动对石羊河出山径流变化影响的贡献率。结果表明:1)近50年,石羊河上游气温总体上表现为显著上升趋势,降水虽有所增多,但趋势并不显著,而潜在蒸发却呈显著减少的趋势;2)出山径流整体减少趋势并不显著,但在1975年、1990年和2002年均发生明显的突变,出山径流变化具有较大的波动性;3)1976年至2009年,石羊河上游气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响的贡献率分别为45%和55%,这表明出山径流变化受到气候变化和人类活动的双重影响,其中人类活动是影响径流变化的主导因素。
关 键 词: 地理学;气候变化;人类活动;径流;贡献率;石羊河流域
Title: Effects of climatic changes and human activities on the streamflow in the upper reaches of Shiyang river
Author: LI Peng, XU Jianhua, CHEN Zhongsheng, ZHAO Benfu
Organization: School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University
Abstract: Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of the upper reaches of Shiyanghe river basin from 1960 to 2009 and using slide t detection method, accumulative anomaly and multi-regression methods, we analyzed the long-term trends of streamflow and climate change in the upper reaches of Shiyang river basin, and explored the contributive ratio affecting runoff by human activities and climate changes. The results show that: 1) During the past 50 years, the temperature has a significant increasing trend and precipitation slightly increases but the trend is not significant, while the potential evaporation increased significantly. 2) The annual runoff variation tendency overall descends slowly, yet not significantly. However, there are obvious mutations in 1975, 1990 and 2002, in which the annual runoff frequently fluctuated. 3) The runoff variation is influenced both by the climate changes and human activities, climate variations accounted for 45% of decrease in streamflow from 1976 to 2009, while human activities accounted for 55%. Therefore, human activities play a dominant influence on the decline of the streamflow in the upper reaches of the Shiyang river.
Key words: geography; climate changes; human activities; runoff; contribution rate; Shiyang river basin
发表期数: 2015年6月第12期
引用格式: 李鹏,徐建华,陈忠升,等. 气候变化和人类活动对石羊河上游径流的影响[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2015,8(12):1270-1280.
 
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