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近32年长三角地区大气能见度时空变化分析

发表时间:2015-06-30  浏览量:1443  下载量:598
全部作者: 周寅,龚绍琦,史建桥
作者单位: 南京信息工程大学遥感学院;中国人民解放军94857部队;南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室;中国人民解放军94783部队
摘 要: 利用1981年1月至2013年2月长江三角洲24个地面观测站的水平能见度和同期气象观测数据,采用5年滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、多元回归分析等方法,分析长三角地区能见度的时空变化特征及气象影响因子。结果表明:近32年来,长三角地区年平均能见度为11.4 km,在2000年最大为12.5 km. 整体呈显著减小趋势,减小速率为-0.19 km/10a,尤其是2000年以来能见度减少更加明显,减小速率达-0.66 km/10a. 夏季能见度最好,冬季最差,四季能见度的变化均表现为减小趋势,减小趋势强度为:冬季>秋季>夏季>春季。1981年至2012年能见度未发生显著突变,仅在2002年发生了转折,由能见度的增加转为减小。长三角地区能见度呈自西向东逐步增加的分布态势,沿海地带能见度大于内陆地区,20世纪80年代能见度以减少趋势为主,20世纪90年代明显增加和明显减少趋势并存,21世纪以来呈缓慢增加趋势,但局部地区显著减少。统计分析表明,春、秋和冬季能见度与气温、水汽压和相对湿度呈负相关,与风速、日照百分率和地面气压呈正相关关系,夏季大气能见度与气象因子的关系比较复杂。四季能见度主要受日照百分率、水汽压、风速、平均气温等影响。
关 键 词: 大气科学;能见度;长三角地区;多元回归分析;时空变化
Title: Analysis on the spatial and temporal variations of visibility in the Yangtze River Delta from 1981 to 2012
Author: ZHOU Yin, GONG Shaoqi, SHI Jianqiao
Organization: School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Unit 94857 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army; Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment for the Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University; Unit 94783 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army
Abstract: Using air horizontal visibility and meteorological observations of from 24 surface meteorological stations from January 1981 to February 2013, the spatial and temporal variations of visibility over the Yangtze River Delta and its response relationships with meteorological factors have been analyzed in virtue of 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall rank statistics, regression analysis and spatial analysis. The results show that the annual mean visibility was 11.4 km during 1981-2012 with the maximum value of 12.5 km in 2000 and the minimum value of 10.6 in 2007. Significant and obvious decreasing trend of the visibility could be found with linear trend rate -0.19 km/10a in the past 32 years, while there was a pronounced decrease phase from 2000 to 2012 at a rate of -0.66 km/10a. The seasonal characteristics show that the mean visibility in summer was the highest, followed by that in autumn and spring and the lowest was in winter. Decreasing trends of the visibility were found in the four in the four seasons, but the seasonal difference in visibility was evident, and decreasing amplitude in season was winter, autumn, summer and spring. It indicated that there was no significant mutation of visibility during 1981-2012, and only transition occurred in 2002 from increase to decrease. The visibility in the Yangtze River Delta was under the distribution of increasing gradually from west to east, which was higher in the coastal areas than that in inland. There was a pronounced decrease phase in the 1980s and quasi-stational phase in the 1990s, and slow increase but significant decline in local areas in the early 21th century. The results of statistic analysis indicated that in spring, autumn and winter, there was negative correlation between visibility and temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity, but positive correlation between visibility and wind speed, sunshine percentage and surface pressure, while the relationships between visibility and meteorological factors in summer were more complicated. The visibility was mainly affected by sunshine percentage, vapor pressure, wind speed and mean temperature.
Key words: atmospheric sciences; visibility; Yangtze River Delta; multiple regression analysis; spatial-temporal variations
发表期数: 2015年6月第12期
引用格式: 周寅,龚绍琦,史建桥. 近32年长三角地区大气能见度时空变化分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2015,8(12):1324-1332.
 
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