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密云水库WASP模型敏感性分析

发表时间:2016-01-31  浏览量:2016  下载量:766
全部作者: 王倩,邹志红
作者单位: 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院
摘 要: 基于WASP富营养化模型,运用Morris法分析模型参数的敏感性,有效识别关键参数,减少模型未知参数的不确定性,提高了参数优化的效率。以密云水库WASP模型为例,将2013年水体中氨氮、碳生化需氧量和溶解氧的浓度模拟误差作为目标函数,通过Morris法的计算使模型的33个未知参数简化为12个,其中,浮游植物氮碳比、碳生化需氧量降解速率等参数对模拟结果的误差影响较大,影响范围具有季节性变化特点。
关 键 词: 管理工程;参数敏感性;Morris;WASP;密云水库
Title: Sensitivity analysis of Miyun reservoir using WASP model
Author: WANG Qian, ZOU Zhihong
Organization: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University
Abstract: Based on WASP eutrophication model, Morris is used to analysis the sensibility of model parameters. The parameter uncertainties are reduced and the efficiency of parameter optimization is increased. Miyun reservoir is used as an instance to establish WASP model, the simulated error of the concentration of ammonia nitrogen, carbon biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen in the water body in 2013 is used as the objective function, the unknown parameters in the model are reduced from 33 to 12 through Morris calculation. In which, the parameters of the ratio of nitrogen to carbon and the degradation rate of the carbon biochemical oxygen demand have more effects on the error of the simulation results, and the impact range has seasonal variation characteristics.
Key words: management engineering; parameter sensitivity; Morris; WASP; Miyun reservoir
发表期数: 2016年1月第2期
引用格式: 王倩,邹志红. 密云水库WASP模型敏感性分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2016,9(2):187-192.
 
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