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新型冠状病毒肺炎传播动力学模型研究

发表时间:2021-12-31  浏览量:259  下载量:62
全部作者: 张艺林,张娟
作者单位: 华北电力大学数理学院
摘 要: 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情现已覆盖了全球上百个国家,对人类的生命健康产生极大威胁,对经济等方面也造成很大的冲击,因此采取措施并严格执行以便控制疫情是非常必要的。本文根据新型冠状病毒的传播机理,建立了带有疫苗接种的新型冠状病毒肺炎传染病动力学模型,通过对模型的定性分析,确定了其基本再生数,分析出各类平衡点存在的充分必要条件。通过研究影响基本再生数的参数,考虑到与这些参数有关的佩戴口罩、接种疫苗、追踪密切接触者三项措施,拟合美国新型冠状病毒肺炎的数据并预测美国疫情。数值模拟的结果直观表明了各项措施对美国疫情的影响。
关 键 词: 应用数学;新型冠状病毒肺炎;疫苗接种;数值模拟;平衡点
Title: Transmission dynamics model of COVID-19
Author: ZHANG Yilin, ZHANG Juan
Organization: School of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University
Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in hundreds of countries around the world, posing a great threat to human life and health, and also causing a great impact on the economy and other aspects. It is necessary to take measures and strictly enforce them in order to contain the outbreak. Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, a dynamic model of COVID-19 infectious disease with vaccination was established in this paper. Through qualitative analysis of the model, the basic reproductive number of the model was determined, and the sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of various equilibrium points were analyzed. By studying the parameters that affect the basic reproductive number and taking into account three measures related to these parameters: mask wearing, vaccination, and close contact tracing, data from COVID-19 in the United States were fitted and the epidemic situation in the United States was predicted. The numerical simulation results directly demonstrate the impact of various measures on the epidemic in the United States.
Key words: applied mathematics; COVID-19; vaccination; numerical simulation; equilibrium point
发表期数: 2021年12月第4期
引用格式: 张艺林,张娟. 新型冠状病毒肺炎传播动力学模型研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2021,14(4):447-461.
 
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