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基于机会理论的风电场短期风速预测研究
发表时间：2012-03-31 浏览量：1564 下载量：746
| 全部作者： | 谭平，赵书强 |
| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院 |
| 摘 要： | 自然界中的风受到多种环境因素影响，具有很强的不确定性。传统的短期风速预测算法得出的结果为单一点值，预测结果很难满足精度要求。针对传统的短期风速预测精度低、难以预测风速发展趋势等不足，基于分析风速变化的性质对短期风速预测历史风速进行滤波处理和预测，并对预测算法的结果精度加以分析。提出将单一预测结果点值扩展成预测结果区间的理论，论述风速波动的统计特性；应用机会理论对预测结果风速值的性质加以分析。最后提出应用机会向量法评价预测结果点值的性质，经算例说明该方法可以使短期风速预测结果更具参考价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 能源计算与测量；短期风速预测；均值滤波；机会理论；风速波动；机会向量 |
| Title： | Research on short-term forecast of wind speed on wind farm based on chance theory |
| Author： | TAN Ping, ZHAO Shuqiang |
| Organization： | School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University |
| Abstract： | Because of the influence of the various environmental factors, the natural wind has strong uncertainty. The result of the traditional short-term forecast method of wind speed is single value, and the forecast result usually can not meet the accuracy requirement. Aimed at the shortcomings of traditional short-term wind speed forecast methods including low accuracy, difficulty in forecasting the wind speed tendency and so on, this paper carries out the filtering to the history wind speed of the short-term wind speed forecast based on the character of the wind speed change and then the forecast, and analyzes the result accuracy of the forecast algorithm. This paper also puts forward the theory that extends a single forecast result value to a forecast result section, discusses the statistical property of the wind speed wave motion, and analyzes the character of the forecast result with chance theory. At last the paper puts forward the chance vector to assess the character of the forecast result value, illustrates that chance vector method will enhance the reference value of short-term wind speed forecast result with the example. |
| Key words： | calculation and survey of energy sources; short-term wind speed forecast; mean filtering; chance theory; wind speed wave motion; chance vector |
| 发表期数： | 2012年3月第6期 |
| 引用格式： | 谭平，赵书强. 基于机会理论的风电场短期风速预测研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2012，5（6）：547-554. |
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