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道路交通状态的混沌特征分析
发表时间：2013-02-28 浏览量：1527 下载量：495
| 全部作者： | 马庆禄 |
| 作者单位： | 重庆交通大学交通运输学院 |
| 摘 要： | 从交通系统的本质角度出发，研究道路交通状态的变化规律，选择路段平均速度作为交通状态评判的基本指标，利用实测路段平均速度值在全域估计模型的基础上对交通状态的混沌特征进行估算实验，根据交通状态评判指标的时间序列分析相邻交通状态的变化轨迹，并讨论模型参数对交通状态动力学特性的影响。实验结果表明：道路交通状态的变化机理有一定的规律性，具备混沌的基本特征，因此短期内交通状态的变化情况是可以被预测的。 |
| 关 键 词： | 计算机决策支持系统；混沌；平均速度；Lyapunov指数；交通状态 |
| Title： | Analysis on the chaotic characteristics for road traffic condition |
| Author： | MA Qinglu |
| Organization： | School of Traffic and Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University |
| Abstract： | From the point of the traffic system in nature, the change rule of traffic condition was studied. The road average speeds were selected as the basic indictor of road traffic condition evaluation, and based on global model, the chaotic character of traffic condition was evaluated by measuring value of road average speeds. The change trajectory of adjacent traffic status was analyzed based on the time series of road traffic evaluation indictor. Furthermore, the effects of model parameters on dynamical characteristics of traffic condition was discussed. The experimental results showed that the change of road traffic condition had a certain regularity and chaotic characteristics. Therefore, the change of road traffic condition can be predicted in a short term. |
| Key words： | decision support system of computer; chaos; mean speed; Lyapunov exponent; traffic condition |
| 发表期数： | 2013年2月第4期 |
| 引用格式： | 马庆禄. 道路交通状态的混沌特征分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2013，6（4）：302-309. |
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