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基于PCA-BP模型的粮食安全体系研究
发表时间：2023-03-30 浏览量：387 下载量：94
| 全部作者： | 王可欣，刘宇 |
| 作者单位： | 辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院 |
| 摘 要： | 粮食安全是全面推进乡村振兴的关键。为此，本文基于PCA-BP神经网络模型并利用灰色关联分析对粮食产量的主要影响要素进行定量分析。本文根据地理位置、气候、自然灾害等因素，选取对辽宁省粮食产量有影响的8个指标，初步确定影响要素后对不同指标数据进行预处理，将不同单位的指标数据均变化到0～1之间。采用主因子分析法，去除冗余的指标后最终选取5个指标，确定为主要影响产量的因素。然后利用PCA-BP组合神经网络预测模型，根据选取的5个指标作为BP神经网络的输入层，对未来5年粮食产量进行预测。并将8种指标分别与粮食总产量进行敏感度对比，判断出指标与粮食总产量的相关性大小。确定出特定的几种因素，帮助粮食在适合的环境中更好地生产，以达到增加产量的目的。 |
| 关 键 词： | 安全科学；粮食产量；主因子分析法；PCA-BP组合预测模型；灰色关联分析法；敏感性分析 |
| Title： | Research on food security system based on PCA-BP model |
| Author： | WANG Kexin, LIU Yu |
| Organization： | School of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University |
| Abstract： | Food security is the key to comprehensively promote rural revitalization. Therefore, based on PCA-BP neural network model and grey correlation analysis, this paper carries out quantitative analysis on the main influencing factors of grain yield. Based on geographical location, climate, natural disasters and other factors, this paper selected 8 indicators that had an impact on grain output in Liaoning province, preliminarily determined the influencing factors, preprocessed the data of different indicators, and changed the index data of different units to 0-1. Principal factor analysis method was adopted to remove redundant indicators and finally 5 indicators were selected as the main factors affecting the yield. Then, the PCA-BP combined neural network prediction model was used to predict the grain yield in the next five years according to the five indexes selected as the input layer of BP neural network. The sensitivity of the eight indexes was compared with the total grain production to determine the correlation between the indexes and the total grain production. In order to increase food production, certain factors are identified to help food in the right environment to better production. |
| Key words： | safety science; grain production; principal factor analysis; PCA-BP combination prediction model; grey relational analysis; analysis of sensitivity |
| 发表期数： | 2023年3月第1期 |
| 引用格式： | 王可欣，刘宇. 基于PCA-BP模型的粮食安全体系研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2023，16（1）：128-137. |
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