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东北三省人口迁移研究
发表时间：2024-01-16 浏览量：388 下载量：52
| 全部作者： | 陈佳棋，王诗 |
| 作者单位： | 辽宁工程技术大学电子与信息工程学院 |
| 摘 要： | 本研究旨在分析东北三省（辽宁、吉林、黑龙江）在第五、六、七次人口普查期间，“全国按现住地和五年前常住地”分类下的人口迁移数据。通过引入人口迁移选择指数，描述了人口迁移的空间格局。并进一步计算了该指数的变化率，结果显示：东北三省的人口迁移趋势日益明显，其中黑龙江省的人口流失问题尤为突出。虽然传统的重力模型被广泛用于预测人口迁移量，但本研究发现其预测效果存在较大的误差。为了提高模型的预测准确性，本研究引入了GDP、城镇居民可支配收入和省会城市的年平均温度这三个相关度较小的变量。基于2020年辽宁省的人口迁移数据拟合得到的参数值对2020年吉林省和黑龙江省的人口迁移数据进行预测，结果显示：改进后的模型在多数地区均展现出了较好的预测性能。本文通过对东北地区的人口流失问题进行深入分析，揭示了东北地区的人口流失的变化规律，为相关政策制定和实施提供了重要参考。 |
| 关 键 词： | 应用数学；人口迁移；人口迁移选择指数；重力模型 |
| Title： | Population migration research in the three northeastern provinces of China |
| Author： | CHEN Jiaqi，WANG Shi |
| Organization： | School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Liaoning Technical University |
| Abstract： | This research focuses on analyzing the population migration data of the three northeastern provinces of China (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) during the fifth, sixth, and seventh national population censuses, specifically under the category of “current place of residence and place of residence five years ago”. The population migration selection index is introduced to discribe the spatial pattern of population migration and to calculate its rate of change. We reveal an increasingly evident trend of population migration in these provinces, with Heilongjiang province particularly significant. While traditional gravity models are commonly used to predict population migration, they are found to have considerable prediction errors in this study. To enhance the model’s accuracy, three influential yet less correlated variables are introduced: GDP, disposable income of urban residents, and the annual average temperature of provincial capital cities. Using parameter values fitted from 2020 population migration data from Liaoning province, the improved model successfully predicts 2020 population migration data for Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces, demonstrating better predictive performance in most regions of these two provinces. By analysing population outflows in the northeastern region, we uncover the changing patterns of population loss and offer crucial information for the formulation and implementation of relevant policies. |
| Key words： | applied mathematics; population migration; population migration selection index; gravity model |
| 发表期数： | 2023年12月第4期 |
| 引用格式： | 陈佳棋，王诗. 东北三省人口迁移研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2023，16（4）：457-467. |
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