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基于趋势外推法的宁波港国际集装箱吞吐量预测
发表时间：2008-01-31 浏览量：2623 下载量：926
| 全部作者： | 张宝，朱洋立 |
| 作者单位： | 河海大学交通学院、海洋学院 |
| 摘 要： | 宁波港地处我国大陆海岸线中部，南北和长江“T”型结构的交汇点上，地理位置适中，是中国大陆著名的深水良港。近些年，浙江经济发展迅速，对外贸易量大幅度攀升，这为宁波港的发展提供了契机。再加上宁波港得天独厚的自然条件，为其自身发展奠定了良好的基础。本文利用宁波港历年国际集装箱吞吐量数据，根据趋势外推法建立模型预测宁波港2006～2007年的国际集装箱吞吐量，为科学规划宁波港及其发展提供依据。但趋势外推法模型较为适合短期预测，而不宜作长时期的外推应用。 |
| 关 键 词： | 经济管理决策与分析；预测；趋势外推法；集装箱吞吐量；宁波港 |
| Title： | The forecast based on Trend Extrapolation of international container throughput of Ningbo port |
| Author： | ZHANG Bao |
| Organization： | Tianjin Port and Waterway Prospection and Design Research institude Co.,LTD |
| Abstract： | Ningbo Port is located in central China's mainland coastline, north and south and the Yangtze River "T"-type structure of the intersection, conveniently located, is China's famous deep-water port. In recent years, rapid economic development of Zhejiang, the foreign trade volume rose substantially, for the development of Ningbo Port has provided an opportunity. Ningbo Port blessed with the natural conditions for its own development laid a good foundation. Using the former years’ data of international container throughput of Ningbo Port and based on the trend extrapolation, this paper has set up a model to predict the international container throughput of Ningbo Port in 2006 and 2007, which provides the groundings for its scientific programming. |
| Key words： | Economic Control Decision and analysis; forecast; trend extrapolation; international container throughput; Ningbo port |
| 发表期数： | 2008年5月第2期 |
| 引用格式： | 张宝，朱洋立. 基于趋势外推法的宁波港国际集装箱吞吐量预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2008，1（2）：202-204. |
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