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具有脉冲接种SIQR模型的危险源扩散动力学分析

发表时间:2008-06-30  浏览量:2993  下载量:1417
全部作者: 戴东甫,赵林度
作者单位: 东南大学系统工程研究所
摘 要: 在应对生物恐怖袭击事件时,如果能够准确地了解危险源扩散的规律,将有助于更好地规避或降低危险源扩散造成的风险。本文采用传染病动力学方法,借鉴带有脉冲接种的SIQR模型来分析危险源扩散机制,得到了控制危险源扩散的脉冲接种周期与接种率的关系,并提出了一种在一定脉冲周期下,实现消除危险源最小接种率的具体算法。通过实际数据分析得到,该算法在较小的脉冲接种率条件下,比应用一次性接种方法能够更有效地控制危险源的扩散。
关 键 词: 系统工程;脉冲接种;SIQR模型;扩散动力学;生物危险源扩散;生物恐怖
Title: Biological hazard diffusion dynamic research based on SIQR model under a planned pulse vaccination strategy
Author: DAI Dongfu, ZHAO Lindu
Organization: Institute of System Engineering, Southeast University
Abstract: In dealing with the biological terrorism raid, if the hazard diffusion regime is well known, the risk made by the hazard diffusion can be eluded or reduced. In this paper, the relationship between pulse vaccination period and rate of controlling the hazard diffusion is got through analyzing the hazard diffusion by using SIQR model under a planned pulse vaccination, and an arithmetic is proposed which can find the minimal vaccination rate to eradicate the hazard under a certain pulse vaccination period. By analyzing the data of measles outbreak in Guizhou Province in 2004, the conclusions can be dotained that the hazard diffusion can be controlled under a low planned pulse vaccination rate and that it is more effective than using the one-off vaccination method.
Key words: system engineering; pulse vaccination; SIQR model; diffusion dynamics; biological hazard diffusion; biological terrorism
发表期数: 2008年10月第12期
引用格式: 戴东甫,赵林度. 具有脉冲接种SIQR模型的危险源扩散动力学分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2008,1(12):1315-1321.
 
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