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私家车保有量增长及调控问题

发表时间:2009-01-15  浏览量:2569  下载量:1123
全部作者: 张远四,徐云龙,石玉文,张兴永
作者单位: 中国矿业大学理学院
摘 要: 据中国汽车工业协会估算:截止到2006年底,中国私人汽车保有量约为2 650万辆,占全国汽车保有量的60%左右。私有汽车的多少直接影响国民经济的发展和环境的种种问题。本文根据数据预测2010年该地区私人汽车保有量,运用BP人工神经网络的计算机仿真方法及多元回归模型得到了汽车保有量与人均国内生产总值、全社会消费品零售总额等之间的关系,对汽车保有量进行了科学的预测,并通过模拟假设检验的方法说明了多元回归模型的可行性。两种预测结果比较吻合。
关 键 词: 应用数学;BP人工神经网络模型;多元回归分析模型;上层优化模型
Title: Growth in private car ownership and control issues
Author: ZHANG Yuansi, XU Yunlong, SHI Yuwen, ZHANG Xingyong
Organization: College of Sciences, China University of Mining and Technology
Abstract: According to the estimation from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by the end of 2006, China’s private car ownership was about 26.5 million, accounting for 60% of the national car ownership approximately. The number of private cars directly affects national economic development and environmental issues. According to data, it forecast the private car ownership of this area in 2010, using computer simulation method of BP artificial neural network and the multiple regression model, it got the relationship of car ownership, per capita GDP and total retail sales of consumer goods for the entire society, and made a scientific forecasting for car ownership. Through the method of simulation hypothesis testing, it explained the feasibility of multiple regression model. The results of the two forecasting were identical.
Key words: applied mathematics;BP artificial neural network model; multiple regression analysis model; upper optimal model
发表期数: 2009年1月第1期
引用格式: 张远四,徐云龙,石玉文,等. 私家车保有量增长及调控问题[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2009,2(1):73-79.
 
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