您的位置:首页  > 论文页面

中国人口增长预测

发表时间:2009-01-15  浏览量:2179  下载量:814
全部作者: 王硕朋,刘舒然,周红伟,周圣武
作者单位: 中国矿业大学理学院;中国矿业大学信息与电气工程学院;中国矿业大学计算机科学与技术学院
摘 要: 统筹解决人口问题是我国实现经济、社会可持续发展的重要战略任务。本文对预测人口常用的模型做了详细分析,提出了它们在实际预测条件下的不足,考虑了人口年龄、不同年龄生育率及死亡率等因素,通过分析建立了人口离散模型及改进的队列要素模型,对2010年至2050年的人口总量进行了预测,效果良好。
关 键 词: 应用数学;人口预测;人口离散模型; 队列要素模型
Title: The prediction of China’s population growth
Author: WANG Shuopeng, LIU Shuran, ZHOU Hongwei, ZHOU Shengwu
Organization: College of Sciences, China University of Mining and Technology; School of Information and Electrical Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology; School of Computer Science and Technology, China University of Mining and Technology
Abstract: The coordination of solving the population problem is important for economic and social sustainable development of China. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the common models used for predicting population has been presented and the shortcomings when they are applied under the practical conditions have been pointed out. Considering the age of the population, the fertility and mortality of different ages,and other factors, the total population of the year from 2010 to 2050 is predicted and good results are obtained by establishing the population discrete model and the improved queue elements model.
Key words: applied mathematics; population forecast; population discrete model; queue elements model
发表期数: 2009年1月第1期
引用格式: 王硕朋,刘舒然,周红伟,等. 中国人口增长预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2009,2(1):61-67.
 
2 评论数 0
暂无评论
友情链接