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水库移民安置风险分析评价

发表时间:2009-02-28  浏览量:1624  下载量:762
全部作者: 冯雪,李红远
作者单位: 河海大学水利水电工程学院
摘 要: 随着我国大中型水利水电工程建设步伐的加快,移民数量猛增,移民安置实施过程中将面临越来越多的风险因素。利用风险管理体系对水库移民安置风险进行分析评价。首先建立移民安置风险层次结构,运用德尔菲法对风险指标的相对重要性进行主观概率评价;再运用层次分析法(analytical hierarchy process, AHP)赋值运算得到风险权值分布。此外,模糊综合评价法将定性指标和定量指标有机地结合起来,解决了因素过多难以分配权重的问题。
关 键 词: 水利水电工程;水库移民安置;德尔菲法;层次分析法;风险评价
Title: Analysis and evaluation of reservoir resettlement risks
Author: FENG Xue, LI Hongyuan
Organization: College of Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University
Abstract: As the construction of China’s large and medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects speeds up, and the number of immigrants increases, the implementation of resettlement faceds with more and more risk factors. This paper analyses and evaluates these risks in the reservoir resettlement using the risk management system. First of all, it establishes the hierarchy structure of resettlement risk and makes subjective probability evaluation on the relative importance of risk index applying the Delphi method, then applies AHP method assignment operation to obtain the risk weight distribution. Moreover, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method combines the qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators together, and solves the problem that the factors are too much to distribute weight.
Key words: water conservancy and hydropower engineering; reservoir resettlement; Delphi method; analytical hierarchy process; risk evaluation
发表期数: 2009年2月第4期
引用格式: 冯雪,李红远. 水库移民安置风险分析评价[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2009,2(4):359-365.
 
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