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跨界水冲突评价与权重灵敏度分析

发表时间:2009-12-31  浏览量:1653  下载量:714
全部作者: 曾勇
作者单位: 中国石油大学资源与信息学院,油气资源与探测国家重点实验室
摘 要: 针对跨界水冲突评价指标选择和权重分配的不确定性问题,从跨界水冲突定义出发,选择水量、水质指标,构建基于不满意度函数的评价模型,采用蒙特卡罗模拟和方差贡献法分析权重的灵敏度。运用所建方法评价官厅水库跨界水冲突,1988年至1999年研究区总不满意度在1.54~5.93之间,平均值为3.53,说明流域水冲突较为严重;趋势先下降后上升,表明水冲突缓解后又有加剧;权重的灵敏度分析结果表明,95%置信水平下总不满意度的置信区间为[0.82,9.91],说明权重的不确定对结果影响大;其中的指标权重累计方差贡献率为87.0%,远高于决策者权重的13.0%,说明指标权重变动比决策者权重变动更能影响评价结果;氨氮指标的权重A3是影响北京、张家口和总不满意度的最灵敏参数,方差贡献率均为60%以上。
关 键 词: 环境管理学;跨界水冲突评价;不满意度函数;权重灵敏度;官厅水库
Title: Transboundary water conflict evaluating method and its weight sensitivity analysis
Author: ZENG Yong
Organization: State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resource and Prospecting, Faculty of Natural Resources & Information Technology, China University of Petroleum
Abstract: Aimed at the uncertainty of indexes selection and weight distribution in the field of transboundary water conflict evaluation methods, the evaluating model based on dissatisfactory function was set up according to the definition of transboundary water conflict. The Monte Carlo simulation and variance contribution method were used to analyze the sensitivity of weight. The transboundary water conflict in Guanting reservoir was selected as example to study. The total dissatisfactory degrees are between 1.54 and 5.93, average 3.53, which explains the serious situation in studied area. The trend of it descends firstly but rises recently. The sensitivity analysis of weight shows that the confidence intervals of total dissatisfactory degrees under confidence level 95% are [0.82, 9.91], which implies the uncertainty of weight impacts evaluating result largely. Among them, the aggregate variance contribution for weight of indexes is 87.0%, which is much higher than weight of decision-maker. It can be inferred that the weight of indexes is more important than that of decision-maker in changing evaluating results. The weight A3 is the mostly sensitive parameter for dissatisfactory degrees of Beijing, Zhangjiakou and total, which all can explain 60% of total variance contribution.
Key words: environmental management; transboundary water conflict evaluation; dissatisfactory function; sensitivity of weight; Guanting reservoir
发表期数: 2009年12月第24期
引用格式: 曾勇. 跨界水冲突评价与权重灵敏度分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2009,2(24):2598-2604.
 
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