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武汉市体感温度预测模型研究

发表时间:2010-01-15  浏览量:1798  下载量:776
全部作者: 张国雯,蔡丽勤,徐长寿,赵东方
作者单位: 华中师范大学数学与统计学学院
摘 要: 根据2008年7月至9月间61 d搜集到的武汉市具有代表性地区的体感气温资料以及武汉中心气象台数据,对测量气温与气象台公布的日最高气温、日最低气温、日最高湿度、日最低湿度、日最高风速、日最低风速进行无量纲化处理,然后应用逐步回归方法得到一个相对较好的体感温度线性预测模型y=0.829 79x2-0.205 41x4,此模型较为简单,可以用于日常估计。最后利用SAS分析得到一个更好的二次多项式回归模型y=0.855 65x2-0.479 43x3+0.284 72x23-0.220 81x24-0.201 68x2x5,该模型可以用于精确的体感温度度量。从而得知:专业气象服务中可采用百叶箱内最高气温加上湿度、风速订正计算体感温度。
关 键 词: 应用数学;数学模型;数据拟合;体感温度;统计分析
Title: The prediction model of people-feeling temperature of Wuhan
Author: ZHANG Guowen, CAI Liqin, XU Changshou, ZHAO Dongfang
Organization: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University
Abstract: Firstly, the data that the research team got from the typical area of Wuhan and Wuhan observatory in 61 days between July and September of 2008 were dealt with in this paper, by changing them into the data without units. Secondly, a comparatively good linear prediction model for body feeling temperature: y=0.829 79x2-0.205 41x4 with the method of stepwise regression was got, and this model can be used in the field of daily estimation. Thirdly, a preferable nonlinear model: y=0.855 65x2-0.479 43x3+0.284 72x23-0.220 81x24-0.201 68x2x5 was got using SAS software. This model can be used in accurate body temperature measurement. Through this, it is concluded that in the professional service of weather reports, the highest temperature of weather report, humidity and wind speed can be taken into consideration to forecast the body feeling temperature.
Key words: applied mathematics; maths model; data fitting; people-feeling temperature; statistic analysis
发表期数: 2010年1月第1期
引用格式: 张国雯,蔡丽勤,徐长寿,等. 武汉市体感温度预测模型研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2010,3(1):34-40.
 
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