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基于实物期权的高速公路项目投资决策研究

发表时间:2010-11-15  浏览量:1624  下载量:655
全部作者: 刘继才,雷晓莹
作者单位: 西南交通大学经济管理学院
摘 要: 传统的高速公路投资项目评价方法局限于折现法,这种方法没有考虑到项目未来现金流的不确定性和项目执行过程中的灵活性;相比较而言,实物期权在评估项目的不确定性、处理投资的不可逆性及反映项目的市场价值方面更有优势。将实物期权引入高速公路投资项目,运用二叉树模型确定项目的扩张期权价值,为高速公路项目投资决策提供参考。
关 键 词: 项目管理;高速公路项目;不确定性;实物期权;二叉树
Title: Research on investment decision of highway project with real option approach
Author: LIU Jicai, LEI Xiaoying
Organization: School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University
Abstract: Traditional evaluation methods of highway project do not consider the uncertainty of the future cash flow of the project and the flexibility during the construction. On the contrary, the method of real option can evaluate the uncertainty correctly, cope with the irreversibility of the investment efficiently and have the advantage in reflecting the market value. This paper applies the real options theory to evaluate highway investment projects. It uses the binomial tree models to determine the value of the project's expansion options for the highway project investment and try to make contribution to project investment decision.
Key words: project management; highway project; uncertainty; real option; binomial tree
发表期数: 2010年11月第21期
引用格式: 刘继才,雷晓莹. 基于实物期权的高速公路项目投资决策研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2010,3(21):2232-2237.
 
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