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基于R/S法分析福州城市发展对气候的影响

发表时间:2010-12-31  浏览量:1587  下载量:632
全部作者: 林琛琛
作者单位: 福建师范大学地理科学学院
摘 要: 运用重标极差分析(rescaled range analysis,R/S)方法对1965年至2005年福州市的气温、降水、日照百分率和相对湿度等气候因子的冬、夏和年平均值进行了分析计算,结果表明:各因子的Hurst指数H除冬季月降雨量的值小于0.5外,其余均大于0.5,说明存在较明显的Hurst现象,即福州市城市气候变化存在着持续性。其中,近40年来福州市平均气温大致表现出上升趋势,而降水、日照百分率和相对湿度基本呈现出不同程度的下降趋势,说明福州城市化加剧在一定程度上影响着福州气候。
关 键 词: 环境气象学;重标极差分析;城市发展;气候效应;福州
Title: R/S-based analysis of the effect of urban development upon the climate in Fuzhou city
Author: LIN Chenchen
Organization: College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University
Abstract: This paper analyzes the temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine percentage in winter and summer and their annual averages based on rescaled range analysis (R/S) analysis in Fuzhou city during recent 40 years from 1965 to 2005. The results are as follows: all the Hurst indexes in winter and summer and their annual averages are higher than 0.5 except monthly precipitation in winter, and the four climatic factors have the significant Hurst phenomena. Thus, it can be proven that such climate change in Fuzhou will be continued. The Hurst indexes of these climatic factors in summer are higher than those in winter. It can be concluded that the seasonal intensity of climatic change caused by urbanization in Fuzhou will be continued, and the temperature in winter and summer and its annual average will be continuously increased. However, there have been decreasing trends in precipitation, relative humidity, and percentage of sunshine duration in Fuzhou during recent 40 years.
Key words: environmental meteorology; rescaled range analysis; urban development; climatic effect; Fuzhou
发表期数: 2010年12月第24期
引用格式: 林琛琛. 基于R/S法分析福州城市发展对气候的影响[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2010,3(24):2489-2495.
 
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