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用统计降尺度模型对东江流域极端降水的未来情景预测

发表时间:2011-07-31  浏览量:15875  下载量:7543
全部作者: 王鹏,荣艳淑,王文,韦露斯
作者单位: 中国水电顾问集团贵阳勘测设计研究院;河海大学水文水资源学院;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室
摘 要: 利用1961年至2000年40年的实测气象站点逐日气象资料和美国环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)再分析资料,以及英国气候中心的HadCM3模式2011年至2099年的输出数据,用统计降尺度模型(statistical down�scaling model, SDSM)方法,建立东江流域的统计降尺度模型,模型的解释方差接近或超过SDSM模型对其他地区的模拟。结果表明:SDSM方法对东江流域气象站点的统计降尺度模拟效果较好,其中对年降水量模拟效果最好,对于最大日降水量的拟合效果略差。2011年至2099年,不论是高温室气体排放情景还是低温室气体排放情景下,年降水量均有所减少,表明东江流域未来有降水减少的趋势。
关 键 词: 水文学及水资源;年降水量;极端降水;统计降尺度模型;未来情景预测;东江流域
Title: Downscaling extreme precipitation in Dongjiang River Basin of China based on SDSM
Author: WANG Peng, RONG Yanshu, WANG Wen, WEI Lusi
Organization: Hydro China Guiyang Engineering Corporation; College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology�Water Resources & Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University
Abstract: In this paper, a statistical downscaling model was built in Dongjiang River Basin of China based on statistical down�scaling model (SDSM) method by using the observed daily precipitation data from China Meteorological Centre, daily reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), and output data of scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The explaining variances of SDSM model for Dongjiang River Basin are close to or exceed SDSM models for other regions' simulation and the SDSM model for Dongjiang River Basin is capable of reproducing various statistical characteristics. The results of simulation for Dongjiang River Basin show that the simulation of annual precipitation is best, the simulation of maximum daily precipitation is worse. In the future of 2011~2099, there is a decrease trend in annual precipitation both in A2 and B2 scenario.
Key words: hydrology and water resources;annual precipitation; extreme precipitation; statistical down�scaling model; future scenarios; Dongjiang River Basin of China
发表期数: 2011年7月第14期
引用格式: 王鹏,荣艳淑,王文,等. 用统计降尺度模型对东江流域极端降水的未来情景预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2011,4(14):1312-1320.
 
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