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基于Copula联结函数的两变量洪水频率分析
发表时间：2011-11-15 浏览量：1553 下载量：680
| 全部作者： | 吕艳军，陆宝宏，张瀚文，姜姝婷，惠晓娟 |
| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源学院；河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 |
| 摘 要： | 采用二维Archimedean Copula函数族中的Gumbel-Hougaard（GH） Copula函数和Clayton Copula函数研究红水河流域某个站点的洪峰流量与15 d洪水总量及洪峰流量与30 d洪水总量之间的联合分布。根据实测的洪峰及洪量，经对比分析发现，基于Copula联结函数的联合分布理论概率和经验联合分布概率基本相符。由于任意不同分布的水文随机变量均可运用Copula函数构造多维联合分布，因此Copula联结函数在多变量水文频率分析中具有广泛的应用前景。 |
| 关 键 词： | 水文学；洪水频率分析；Archimedean Copula函数；理论联合分布；经验联合分布 |
| Title： | Application of Copulas to bivariate flood frequency analysis |
| Author： | LV Yanjun, LU Baohong, ZHANG Hanwen, JIANG Shuting, HUI Xiaojuan |
| Organization： | College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University |
| Abstract： | Bivariate joint distributions of flood peak with the flood volume of 15 d and 30 d were derived based on Gumbel-Hougaard and Clayton Copula functions. The fitnesses of the derived distribution and empirical distribution were compared using the observed data in Hongshui River basin. The results show that the Copula-constructed joint distribution functions can fit the observed data well. A major advantage of the Copula method is that marginal distributions of individual hydrological variables can be of any form and the variables can be correlated, thus Copula method has a wide application prospect in multivariable hydrological frequency analysis. |
| Key words： | hydrology; flood frequency analysis; Archimedean Copula function; theoretical joint distribution; empirical joint distribution |
| 发表期数： | 2011年11月第21期 |
| 引用格式： | 吕艳军，陆宝宏，张瀚文，等. 基于Copula联结函数的两变量洪水频率分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2011，4（21）：2000-2006. |
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