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基于Copula联结函数的两变量洪水频率分析

发表时间:2011-11-15  浏览量:1150  下载量:530
全部作者: 吕艳军,陆宝宏,张瀚文,姜姝婷,惠晓娟
作者单位: 河海大学水文水资源学院;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室
摘 要: 采用二维Archimedean Copula函数族中的Gumbel-Hougaard(GH) Copula函数和Clayton Copula函数研究红水河流域某个站点的洪峰流量与15 d洪水总量及洪峰流量与30 d洪水总量之间的联合分布。根据实测的洪峰及洪量,经对比分析发现,基于Copula联结函数的联合分布理论概率和经验联合分布概率基本相符。由于任意不同分布的水文随机变量均可运用Copula函数构造多维联合分布,因此Copula联结函数在多变量水文频率分析中具有广泛的应用前景。
关 键 词: 水文学;洪水频率分析;Archimedean Copula函数;理论联合分布;经验联合分布
Title: Application of Copulas to bivariate flood frequency analysis
Author: LV Yanjun, LU Baohong, ZHANG Hanwen, JIANG Shuting, HUI Xiaojuan
Organization: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University
Abstract: Bivariate joint distributions of flood peak with the flood volume of 15 d and 30 d were derived based on Gumbel-Hougaard and Clayton Copula functions. The fitnesses of the derived distribution and empirical distribution were compared using the observed data in Hongshui River basin. The results show that the Copula-constructed joint distribution functions can fit the observed data well. A major advantage of the Copula method is that marginal distributions of individual hydrological variables can be of any form and the variables can be correlated, thus Copula method has a wide application prospect in multivariable hydrological frequency analysis.
Key words: hydrology; flood frequency analysis; Archimedean Copula function; theoretical joint distribution; empirical joint distribution
发表期数: 2011年11月第21期
引用格式: 吕艳军,陆宝宏,张瀚文,等. 基于Copula联结函数的两变量洪水频率分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2011,4(21):2000-2006.
 
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