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基于带遗忘因子最小二乘三次多项式拟合模型的世界人口预测

发表时间:2013-01-15  浏览量:1802  下载量:772
全部作者: 张雨浓,陈宇曦,劳稳超
作者单位: 中山大学信息科学与技术学院
摘 要: 世界人口问题是影响人类社会发展的重要因素之一,为得到全面而良好的世界人口预测效果,基于遗忘因子,利用历史人口数据构建一个最小二乘三次多项式拟合模型。使用该模型对2015年至2100年的世界人口数进行预测。研究结果表明,该模型不但能正确反映未来世界人口的变化规律,而且具有简单、合理、方便的特点。
关 键 词: 应用数学;世界人口预测;三次多项式拟合模型;遗忘因子;最小二乘;历史人口数据
Title: World population prediction based on least square cubic polynomial fitting model with forgetting factor
Author: ZHANG Yunong, CHEN Yuxi, LAO Wenchao
Organization: School of Information Science and Technology, Sun Yat-sen University
Abstract: The problem of world population is one of the most important factors which influence the development of human society. In order to obtain a comprehensive and well world population prediction (WPP), based on forgetting factor, a novel least square cubic polynomial fitting model is proposed according to history population data. In addition, this model is used to predict the population from 2015 to 2100. Study results showed that this model can correctly reflect the changing regularity of future world population with the characteristics of simplicity, rationality and convenience.
Key words: applied mathematics; world population prediction; cubic polynomial fitting model; forgetting factor; least square; history population data
发表期数: 2013年1月第1期
引用格式: 张雨浓,陈宇曦,劳稳超. 基于带遗忘因子最小二乘三次多项式拟合模型的世界人口预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2013,6(1):42-46.
 
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