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全国水情信息及洪水预报预测业务系统在丹江口水库的应用研究

发表时间:2013-01-31  浏览量:1524  下载量:442
全部作者: 杨春兰,高波,何佑生
作者单位: 湖北省汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司信息中心;湖北省汉江水电开发有限责任公司机电部
摘 要: 介绍了全国水情信息及洪水预报预测业务系统在丹江口水利枢纽投入运用以来经历的2场典型洪水的预报预测案例,通过分析模型适用性问题、方案优选问题、参数选择问题、适时人为加入经验因素等问题以及比较预测预报结果与实测洪水径流过程,重点总结了该系统在丹江口水利枢纽洪水预报作业中的使用策略、预报精度、运用效果等。结合丹江口水利枢纽现有的其他洪水预报手段,正确、恰当地运用全国水情信息及洪水预报预测业务系统可大幅度提高洪水预报精度,明显降低了人为处理大量多维数据带来的不确定性,提高了洪水预报的精度,可作为水库洪水预报作业的可靠参考工具。
关 键 词: 防洪工程;水库洪水预报调度;全国水情信息及洪水预报预测业务系统;预报模型,方案优选;经验因素
Title: Research and application of water regime information and flood forecasting system in Danjiangkou reservoir
Author: YANG Chunlan, GAO Bo, HE Yousheng
Organization: Information Center, The Hanjiang River Water Conservancy and Hydropower (Group) Co., Ltd. in Hubei Province; Department of Electrical and Mechanical, Hanjiang River in Hubei Province Hydropower Development Co., Ltd.
Abstract: This paper introduced two typical flood prediction cases since the hydrological information and flood forecasting system was applied in Danjiangkou water conservancy project. Through the analysis on applicability of the model problem, optimization problem, parameter selection problem, timely human experience factors and comparison of prediction results and measured flood runoff process, this paper summarized the operation strategies, forecast precision and application effect of this system in flood forecast of Danjiangkou water conservancy project. Combined with other existing flood forecasting methods in Danjiangkou water conservancy, the correct and appropriate application of the water regime information and flood forecasting system can greatly improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and reduce uncertainty of data from artificial processing, which can be used as a reliable reference tool for flood forecasting of reservoir.
Key words: flood control works; reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching; national hydrological information and flood forecasting system; prediction model; scheme optimization; experience factor
发表期数: 2013年1月第2期
引用格式: 杨春兰,高波,何佑生. 全国水情信息及洪水预报预测业务系统在丹江口水库的应用研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2013,6(2):170-177.
 
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