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基于Logistic,Gompertz及Bass模型的中国互联网扩散研究及模型对比

发表时间:2013-07-15  浏览量:1370  下载量:630
全部作者: 伍凌,贾怀京
作者单位: 北京邮电大学经济管理学院
摘 要: 利用技术扩散符合S型曲线的规律,对中国互联网扩散进行曲线拟合,发现其未来饱和渗透率为61%左右。2013年至2014年间,中国互联网正处于高速增长阶段。到2025年前后,中国的互联网渗透将逐渐趋于一个稳定水平(61.07%)。另外,失去起初阶段的扩散数据后,Logistic曲线拟合结果存在过分乐观的倾向。同时对比了中国互联网扩散基于Logistic,Gompertz及Bass模型的3种拟合结果,发现Logistic曲线拟合是三者中最优的预测模型。
关 键 词: 应用数学;技术扩散;互联网;Logistic模型;Bass模型;Gompertz模型
Title: Internet diffusion research and model comparison bassed on Logistic, Gompertz and Bass models
Author: WU Ling, JIA Huaijing
Organization: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications
Abstract: As the technology diffusion followed the law of the S-shaped curve, the China’s internet diffusion curve fitting result showed that the internet saturation penetration rate in the future was 61%. From 2013 to 2014, China’s internet would be in a stage of rapid growth. In 2025, China’s internet penetration would gradually tend to a stable level (61.07%). In addition, Logistic curve fitting results had the excessive optimistic tendencies after losting the diffusion data of the first stage. Furthermore, three fitting results of China’s internet diffusion based on the Logistic, Gompertz and Bass models were compared and it was found that Logistic model was the optimal forecasting model.
Key words: applied mathematics; technology diffusion; internet; Logistic model;Bass model; Gompertz model
发表期数: 2013年7月第13期
引用格式: 伍凌,贾怀京. 基于Logistic,Gompertz及Bass模型的中国互联网扩散研究及模型对比[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2013,6(13):1204-1208.
 
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