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日本地震间接经济损失的SARIMA模型估计

发表时间:2013-07-15  浏览量:1266  下载量:485
全部作者: 梁淇俊,王斌会
作者单位: 暨南大学经济学院
摘 要: 以往关于地震间接经济损失的研究大多集中在社会经济关联型损失上,导致对间接经济损失的评估不够全面。通过典型相关分析及SARIMA模型对日本地震间接经济损失中的一部分资源关联型损失,即外汇储备增加所导致的间接经济损失进行定量分析,得到具有一定探索性意义的结论:在2011年3月至2012年2月间,由外汇储备变动产生的间接经济损失使得日本经济发展速度减缓约13.06%.
关 键 词: 应用统计数学;经济发展延缓程度;SARIMA模型;间接经济损失;外汇储备
Title: Estimation on indirect economic loss from the earthquake in Japan based on SARIMA model
Author: LIANG Qijun, WANG Binhui
Organization: College of Economics, Jinan University
Abstract: In the past, the study on indirect economic loss from earthquake mostly focused on the social economy related type loss, which resulted in the incomprehensive estimation of indirect economic loss. This paper gave quantitative analysis on part of resources related type loss of indirect economic loss from earthquake in Japan, i.e. indirect economic loss from the increase of foreign exchange reserves through canonical analysis and SARIMA model. An exploratory conclusion was obtained: the rate of economic growth of Japan had slowed down 13.06% because of the indirect economic loss from the change of foreign exchange reserves from March 2011 to February 2012.
Key words: applied statistical mathematics; delay degree of economic development; SARIMA model; indirect economic loss; foreign exchange reserves
发表期数: 2013年7月第13期
引用格式: 梁淇俊,王斌会. 日本地震间接经济损失的SARIMA模型估计[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2013,6(13):1215-1220.
 
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