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城市化进程对南京气温变化的影响

发表时间:2013-11-15  浏览量:1030  下载量:437
全部作者: 裴兴云,孙卫国,江俊杰
作者单位: 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;民航安徽空管分局
摘 要: 根据1960年至2010年南京和城郊台站逐日气温资料及城市发展数据,采用常规统计、主成分分析、回归建模等方法,分析南京城郊气温变化趋势以及气温变化与城市发展指标的关系,探讨城市化进程对南京气温变化的影响。结果表明:近50年来南京平均气温、最高及最低气温显著上升且具有一致性,城区增温率明显大于郊区,气温日较差小于郊区;城区显著增温发生在1990年后的城市快速发展时期。分析认为,影响南京地区气温变化的城市发展因子主要是城市人口数量、土地利用类型、能源消耗和城市发展规划合理水平,其共同解释率可达83%.
关 键 词: 大气科学;城市化;主成分分析;回归模型
Title: Impact of urbanization on climate change in Nanjing city
Author: PEI Xingyun, SUN Weiguo, JIANG Junjie
Organization: School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology; The ATM of Anhui Civil Aviation
Abstract: According to the temperature data of Nanjing and suburban stations and urbanization development information of Nanjing city from 1960 to 2010, combined with statistical analysis, principal component analysis, and regression model, we analyzed the variations of air temperature and researched the impact of urbanization development on air temperature of Nanjing city. The results showed that the annual mean temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature at the area near Nanjing city were rising remarkably and conformably in the recent 50 years, warming rate in urban was greater than in the suburb, but reduction rate of temperature daily range in urban was greater than in suburb. The sharp rise happened in the late 1990s, when rapid urbanization emerged in Nanjing city. The dominant factors that influenced temperature change during urbanization included population, land using type, energy consumption and reasonable level of urban development planning, its common interpretation of the rate was up to 83%.
Key words: atmospheric science; urbanization; principal component analysis; regression model
发表期数: 2013年11月第21期
引用格式: 裴兴云,孙卫国,江俊杰. 城市化进程对南京气温变化的影响[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2013,6(21):1998-2007.
 
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