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中国公路交通温室气体排放峰值研究

发表时间:2013-12-31  浏览量:1428  下载量:629
全部作者: 霍红
作者单位: 清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院
摘 要: 中国公路交通在国家能源供应体系以及温室气体(greenhouse gas, GHG)减缓行动中居重要地位。分析公路交通关键技术的发展现状与趋势,以及能耗和GHG排放的关键驱动因素,基于当前节能政策发展方向,建立技术发展情景并预测公路交通能耗和GHG排放的增长趋势。结果表明:若仅依靠现有技术,未来油耗需求和GHG排放将持续增长,到2050年分别达到5.2亿t和17亿t;而如果能按已出台的政策规划推动技术,燃油需求和GHG排放到2030年可进入平稳期,分别达到3.8亿t和13亿t. 若进一步采取措施,那么2030年开始中国公路交通油耗将逐年下降,GHG排放将在2030年之前达到峰值。
关 键 词: 环境管理学;交通能源;温室气体;排放峰值;关键技术
Title: Greenhouse gas emission peak of China’s road transport
Author: HUO Hong
Organization: Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University
Abstract: China’s road transport is playing an important role in national energy supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions. This paper analyzes the current status and development potentials of key technologies of the road transport, as well as the key driving forces of on-road energy use and GHG emissions. Then projects of the on-road energy use and GHG emissions on the basis of current policy frame were established. The results show that China’s on-road energy use and GHG emissions will continue to grow, and reach 520 and 1700 million metric tons (MMT) by 2050 if no new technologies are introduced in the future. But if the technologies can be promoted as China already planned for the future, the on-road energy use and GHG emissions will stabilize at 380 and 1300 MMT by 2030, respectively. If further measures are taken, the on-road energy use and GHG emissions will decrease after 2030, indicating that the GHG emission peak will come before 2030.
Key words: environmental management; on-road energy; greenhouse gas; emission peak; key technologies
发表期数: 2013年12月第24期
引用格式: 霍红. 中国公路交通温室气体排放峰值研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2013,6(24):2389-2395.
 
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