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基于分步Logistic回归的太阳黑子与武汉降雨量研究

发表时间:2014-01-15  浏览量:1450  下载量:443
全部作者: 马英钧,陈楚,陈岩,赵东方
作者单位: 华中师范大学数学与统计学学院
摘 要: 由于采用累积多元Logistic回归建立的武汉降雨量与太阳黑子的关系模型效果并不理想,在分步Logistic回归——“化多元为二元”思想的基础上,提出基于回归诊断最优的临界值选取和分类次序选取的标准,对传统的多分类Logistic模型进行改进,并给出建立分布Logistic回归模型的一般过程。在此基础上,首先利用1951年至2010年的降雨量等级和不同期的太阳黑子数建立分步Logistic回归模型;其次利用2005年至2010年的实际降雨量检验模型的拟合效果,进而验证了模型的精度较高;然后分析不同期的太阳黑子数对降雨等级的影响;最后,预测了2011年至2015年武汉市的降雨量。
关 键 词: 概率论;分步Logistic回归;临界值;拟合检验;Matlab程序
Title: Study on the sunspots and rainfall of Wuhan city based on substep Logistic regression
Author: MA Yingjun, CHEN Chu, CHEN Yan, ZHAO Dongfang
Organization: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University
Abstract: The relational model of the rainfall and sunspots of Wuhan city established with the cumulative Logistic regression turns out to be unsatisfactory. Based on the substep Logistic regression idea- “multiple regression into two variable regression”, this paper suggests taking the optimal regression diagnosis criteria to select the critical values and the orders of multiple classes. It is an improvement on the basis of the traditional multiple regression. And the general processes to establish substep Logistic regression model are given. Firstly, this substep Logistic regression model is built to search the relationship between the levels of rainfall and sunplots of Wuhan city during 1951-2010. Secondly, the accuracy of the model is verified to have high accuracy by applying the fitting effect of actual rainfall test model of 2005-2010 years. Then, the influence of sunspots with different periods on rainfall levels is analyzed. Finally, the rainfall of Wuhan city bewteen 2011 and 2015 is forecasted.
Key words: probability theory; substep Logistic regression; critical value; fitting test; Matlab program
发表期数: 2014年1月第1期
引用格式: 马英钧,陈楚,陈岩,等. 基于分步Logistic回归的太阳黑子与武汉降雨量研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2014,7(1):1-7.
 
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