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基于多因素多阶影响分析模式的能耗强度分析方法

发表时间:2014-01-15  浏览量:1444  下载量:545
全部作者: 刘新建,宋辉
作者单位: 燕山大学经济管理学院;河北省统计科学研究所
摘 要: 对多因素影响分析理论和方法进行深入分析,认为以物价指数和物量指数原理为基础提出的IO-SDA和对数平均迪氏指数(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)方法存在严重逻辑缺陷,没有把各因素的单独作用和交互作用分离开来,其结果不宜用于经济决策分析。提出采用多因素多阶分析(multifactor and multi-order impact analysis,MMIA)模式,把影响主指标的各因素作用按照单独作用和各阶交互作用分离列出,并用以分析我国1997年至2005年的能耗强度变化。结论:对节能降耗的支持作用和抑制作用同时存在,均很显著,但技术节能的总体作用超过了各种抑制作用总和,并且二阶交互作用非常显著,与一阶独立作用相当。
关 键 词: 能源经济;能耗强度分析方法;多因素影响分析;投入产出
Title: Energy consumption intensity analysis method based on the mode of multifactor and multi-order impact analysis
Author: LIU Xinjian, SONG Hui
Organization: School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University; Statistics Institute of Hebei Province
Abstract: By a deep analysis on the prevail theory and method of multifactor impact analysis, it is thought that the IO-SDA and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) methods which are based on index theory of price index and quantity index have severe logic bugs, and they don't separate interactions from sole actions, and their results are not suitable to economic decision analysis. A multifactor and multi-order impact analysis (MMIA) mode is set up to list the sole and inter-actions separately. The MMIA method is applied to analyze the energy consumption intensity changes in 1997-2005 Chinese economy. From the results we conclude that there are support and inhibitory actions simultaneously and both are significant. The support action of techniques exceeds the total sum of inhibitory actions, and the total second-order interaction is quite remarkable and matched to the total first-order actions.
Key words: energy economics; energy consumption intensity analysis; multifactor impact analysis; input-output
发表期数: 2014年1月第1期
引用格式: 刘新建,宋辉. 基于多因素多阶影响分析模式的能耗强度分析方法[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2014,7(1):70-78.
 
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