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基于人工神经网络的单因素特种设备事故预测

发表时间:2014-05-31  浏览量:1965  下载量:656
全部作者: 冯雪飞,丁日佳
作者单位: 北京大学第三医院财务处;中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院
摘 要: 根据1998年至2010年特种设备安全事故数各相关指标,利用BP人工神经网络对特种设备安全事故数进行分析,建立数量模型。对2011年至2012年的特种设备安全事故数进行验证,并对其趋势进行预测。通过与实际情况对比,模型能很好地对特种设备安全事故趋势进行预测。预测验证2011年至2012年结果符合实际情况,结果表明特种设备安全事故将总体呈下降趋势,预测为科学监管及认识特种设备安全事故趋势规律提供了科学基础。
关 键 词: 系统管理理论;系统工程;预测;人工神经网络;特种设备安全事故
Title: Single factor forecast of special equipment accident based on artificial neural network
Author: FENG Xuefei, DING Rijia
Organization: Financial Department, Peking University Third Hospital; Management Academy, China University of Mining & Technology
Abstract: According to special equipment safety analysis of the relevant indicators of the number of accidents from 1998 to 2010, we analysized the number of special equipment safety accidents using BP artificial neural network and established the quantitative model. According to the number of special equipments from 2011 to 2012, we verified their security incidents and predicted future trends. Through simulations and comparison with the actual situation, the model could predict safety trends of special equipment very exactly and forecast the results during 2011-2012 in line with the actual situation. Our results indicated that the overall trends of special equipment accidents declined. The forecast provides a scientific foundation for scientific monitoring and awareness of the special equipment safety law of accident trends.
Key words: system management theory; system engineering; forecast; artificial neural network; special equipment accident
发表期数: 2014年5月第10期
引用格式: 冯雪飞,丁日佳. 基于人工神经网络的单因素特种设备事故预测[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2014,7(10):1002-1009.
 
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