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高速公路交通安全服务水平量化分级研究

发表时间:2014-06-30  浏览量:1562  下载量:551
全部作者: 孙轶轩,邵春福
作者单位: 北京交通大学城市交通复杂理论与技术教育部重点实验室
摘 要: 拟深入研究典型高速公路交通事故发生的内在机理和重要影响因素,以高速公路交通事故预测为基础,尝试建立高速公路交通安全服务水平量化评价指标体系。实证研究中,以负二项分布模型描述高速公路交通事故呈现出的离散性和偶然性,利用STATA软件对某高速公路交通事故高发路段事故频数进行回归分析,结果表明:大型车比例、曲线比例、平均纵坡、曲度、弯坡组合,以及特殊路段对高速公路交通事故发生的影响作用最为显著,并得到了变量系数的估计值。在此基础上,建立了评价高速公路交通安全服务水平分级的事故率模型,并以一倍标准差为偏离量进行安全服务水平的划分,形成了基于交通事故率的高速公路交通安全服务水平划分体系。
关 键 词: 道路工程;高速公路;交通事故影响因素;交通事故预测模型;交通安全服务水平
Title: Research on service level classification of safety on expressway
Author: SUN Yixuan, SHAO Chunfu
Organization: Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Ministry of Education, Beijing Jiaotong University
Abstract: Expressway traffic safety service level classification system had been established to evaluate the safety service level of expressway in this research, which were based on depth study of the expressway traffic accident causes, internal mechanism and traffic accident frequency estimation model. In the empirical study, the negative binomial model had been chosen to describe the expressway traffic accident which represented the discrete and occasional characteristic. Regression parametric fitting by STATA had indicated that oversize vehicles mixed rate, curve ratio, average longitudinal slope, curvature, curved-slope combination and the special section were the most significant variables for the expressway traffic accident. Based on the estimation model, the criterion system of expressway traffic safety services level was established and the expressway safety service level classification was provided based on road traffic ratio.
Key words: road works; expressway; traffic accident factors; traffic accident estimation model; service level of safety
发表期数: 2014年6月第12期
引用格式: 孙轶轩,邵春福. 高速公路交通安全服务水平量化分级研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2014,7(12):1138-1143.
 
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