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跨地区扩散的动物疫病到达时间分析

发表时间:2015-01-15  浏览量:1550  下载量:800
全部作者: 李峰,靳祯
作者单位: 中北大学理学院;山西大学复杂系统研究所
摘 要: 根据一些动物性疫病的传播机理,构建个体在n个斑块间迁移的动力学模型,其中每个斑块内包含着若干个子块,每个子块内均匀混合着若干个体,子块间的疫病传播与子块的物理位置密切相关,斑块间的疫病传播与染病者的迁移有关。在此基础上,根据疫病流行初期的传播方式,利用随机的方法,给出了疫病到达时间在不同传播方式下的一般表达式。最后通过数值模拟,验证模型的合理性,并分析迁移和距离对疫病到达时间的影响,为控制措施的制定提供了理论依据。
关 键 词: 应用数学;动力学模型;疾病到达时间;斑块;种群迁移
Title: Analysis of the arrival time of animal disease for trans regional diffusion
Author: LI Feng, JIN Zhen
Organization: School of Science, North University of China; Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University
Abstract: In this paper, according to the propagate mechanism of many animal diseases, we propose a n-patch dynamics model with population dispersal. Each patch contains several sub-patches in which individuals uniformly mix. Disease spreading among the sub-patches closely relates with the physical stations of sub-patches, while among the patches, it is closely related with the migration of infections. According to the mode in the initial stage of epidemic diseases prevalence, we give the general expression of disease arrival time with different epidemic diseases prevalence using random method. At last, rationality of model is verified through simulation, then we analyze the effect of migration and distances on the arrival time of disease and provide theoretical basis for formulating control measures.
Key words: applied mathematics; dynamical model; disease arrival time; patches; population dispersal
发表期数: 2015年1月第1期
引用格式: 李峰,靳祯. 跨地区扩散的动物疫病到达时间分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2015,8(1):49-57.
 
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