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中国民间借贷风险成因研究——以温州市为例

发表时间:2015-07-15  浏览量:1662  下载量:559
全部作者: 马伟雄,解凤敏,刘昂,代力,王亚会
作者单位: 中国矿业大学管理学院
摘 要: 通过深入分析我国民间借贷的典型案例,归纳总结出我国民间借贷的基本特征与风险形成的路径。再以民间借贷危机较为严重的浙江省温州市为研究对象,运用因子分析法构建温州市民间借贷风险度量指标,并以灰色关联分析模型分析温州市民间借贷风险成因,为政府解决民间借贷问题提供一定的建议与参考。实证研究表明,温州民间借贷风险主要由结构性风险和利率风险构成,其中民间借贷规模和贷款规模为主要风险因素。通过灰色关联模型的成因实证分析可以得出,温州市民间借贷风险主要来源于当地服务业发展程度、房地产市场融资需求、非公有制经济发展融资需求、国家宏观经济形势等因素。
关 键 词: 货币银行学;民间借贷;风险成因;因子分析;灰色关联分析
Title: Research on the causes of private lending risk in China: a case study of Wenzhou city
Author: MA Weixiong, XIE Fengmin, LIU Ang, DAI Li, WANG Yahui
Organization: School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology
Abstract: This thesis summarizes the basic features of private lending and the ways in which relevant risks formed through in-depth analysis of the typical cases of private lending in our country. It takes Wenzhou city, Zhejiang province, where severe crisis of private lending exists, as an object of study, to build risk measurement index of private lending in Wenzhou city by means of factor analysis method. In addition, the thesis analyzes the contributing factors of private lending risks in Wenzhou city with the aid of grey relational analysis model, providing some suggestions and reference for the local government authorities in terms of solving the problems of private lending. Empirical researches demonstrate that private lending risks in Wenzhou city are mainly comprised of structural risks and interest rate risks, while the sizes of private lending and the sizes of loans are the main contributing factors of private lending risks. In addition, through the cause empirical analysis of grey relational analysis model, a conclusion can be drawn that private lending risks in Wenzhou city mainly stem from the stage of development of local service industry, financing demands of real estate markets, financing demands of development of the non-public sectors of the economy and the macro-economic situations in the country, etc.
Key words: money and banking; private lending; contributing factors of risk; factor analysis; grey relational analysis
发表期数: 2015年7月第13期
引用格式: 马伟雄,解凤敏,刘昂,等. 中国民间借贷风险成因研究——以温州市为例[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2015,8(13):1427-1435.
 
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