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基于马尔可夫模型的端到端流量预测方法研究
发表时间：2015-09-30 浏览量：2009 下载量：823
| 全部作者： | 蒋定德，聂来森，秦文达 |
| 作者单位： | 东北大学信息科学与工程学院 |
| 摘 要： | 针对当前通信网络中端到端流量预测问题，研究端到端流量的准确预测方法，通过将端到端流量建模为马尔可夫模型来描述其时间相关性和动态变化特性，并利用测量样本建立马尔可夫模型的转移概率矩阵。考虑到端到端流量所满足的约束条件，首先预测获得单条端到端流量流的预测值，然后获得所有端到端流量流的预测值，最后通过约束调整获得最终的预测结果。仿真结果表明，所提预测方法能精确预测端到端流量并能准确捕获其动态变化。与以前的方法相比，该方法具有更好的预测性能与更低的预测误差，并具有明显的性能改善。 |
| 关 键 词： | 通信技术；马尔可夫模型；网络流量；加权平均；预测误差 |
| Title： | Prediction approach of end-to-end traffic based on Markov model |
| Author： | JIANG Dingde, NIE Laisen, QIN Wenda |
| Organization： | College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern Universiy |
| Abstract： | For the prediction problem of end-to-end traffic in current communication networks, this paper studies the prediction method about end-to-end traffic, which is modeled as the Markov process to describe its temporal correlation and dynamic nature. The measurement samples about end-to-end traffic are used to build the transition probability matrix of the Markov model. After considering the constraints met by end-to-end traffic, end-to-end traffic is each predicted firstly. Then all of end-to-end traffic is attained. They are adjusted according to the constraints to obtain the final prediction. Simulation results show that the proposed prediction approach can accurately predict end-to-end traffic and capture its dynamic change, and in contrast to previous methods, it holds the better prediction performance and lower prediction errors and has a larger performance improvement. |
| Key words： | communication technology; Markov model; network traffic; weighted average; prediction errors |
| 发表期数： | 2015年9月第18期 |
| 引用格式： | 蒋定德，聂来森，秦文达. 基于马尔可夫模型的端到端流量预测方法研究[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2015，8（18）：1866-1875. |
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