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运用改进的灰色模型预测中国通用航空发展需求

发表时间:2016-04-30  浏览量:1764  下载量:623
全部作者: 宋薇薇,张利国,李景奎
作者单位: 沈阳航空航天大学民用航空学院;沈阳航空航天大学,辽宁省通用航空重点实验室
摘 要: 运用改进的灰色系统理论对中国通用航空发展指标中的全行业年飞行小时数、通用航空企业数量进行预测,建立灰色预测模型,同时运用马尔可夫链理论对灰色预测模型进行改进,并且分别应用两种模型进行预测。结果表明,通过马尔可夫链理论修正的预测模型,预测精度得到了较大改善,结果更为准确。预测结果说明中国通用航空发展迅速,增长潜力明显。
关 键 词: 航空运输;通航发展需求;灰色预测;改进的灰色预测;马尔可夫链;模型
Title: Development needs prediction of China's general aviation using improved gray model
Author: SONG Weiwei, ZHANG Liguo, LI Jingkui
Organization: Civil Aviation School, Shenyang Aerospace University; Liaoning Province General Aviation Laboratory, Shenyang Aerospace University
Abstract: Using the improved gray system theory, we predict general aviation industry development indicators that is the number of flight hours and the number of general aviation enterprises of China. Through the establishment of gray prediction model, and at the meantime, gray prediction model is improved by using Markov chain theory, and both models are applied to predict. The results show that using the prediction model by Markov chain theory correction, the prediction accuracy has been greatly improved with more accurate results. Forecast results indicate that the rapid development of China’s general aviation and the growth potential is obvious.
Key words: air transportation; general aviation development needs; gray prediction; improved gray prediction; Markov chain; model
发表期数: 2016年4月第8期
引用格式: 宋薇薇,张利国,李景奎. 运用改进的灰色模型预测中国通用航空发展需求[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2016,9(8):778-784.
 
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