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网络规模迭加法在艾滋病人群规模估计中的应用
发表时间：2017-03-15 浏览量：1692 下载量：407
| 全部作者： | 王俊，杨瑛，张铁军 |
| 作者单位： | 复旦大学公共卫生学院；上海市闵行区疾病预防控制中心艾滋病性病防治科 |
| 摘 要： | 目的：估计上海市闵行区艾滋病人群（HIV感染者和艾滋病患者）的规模，了解闵行区艾滋病疫情情况，制定并实施有针对性的防治干预措施。方法：采用多阶段随机抽样的方法在上海市闵行区社区人群中招募调查对象，并进行问卷调查，利用网络规模迭加法估计艾滋病人群规模。结果：共调查合格对象3 907人，其中男性1 912人（48.9%），女性1 995人（51.1%）；调查对象平均年龄为（40.54±11.69）岁。初步估计上海市闵行区居民社交网络规模均值为206人，经过反向预测法调整校正后为240人；进一步依据网络规模迭加法并结合态度法校正得该区艾滋病人群规模为368人（95% CI：291.19～444.17），约占上海市闵行区常住人数的0.03%. 结论：采用网络规模迭加法对艾滋病人群的规模进行估计，其操作简单易行，但仍需对结果进行适当校正。 |
| 关 键 词： | 流行病学；网络规模迭加法；艾滋病；人群规模估计 |
| Title： | Application of network scale-up method on estimation of the size of people living with HIV/AIDS |
| Author： | WANG Jun, YANG Ying, ZHANG Tiejun |
| Organization： | School of Public Health, Fudan University; Department of AIDS, Shanghai Minhang Center for Disease Control and Prevention |
| Abstract： | Objective: To estimate the population size of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in Minhang district, Shanghai, and understand the epidemic of AIDS as well as develop specific prevention measures. Methods: A multiple stages random sampling method was used to recruit eligible participants among general population in Minhang district, Shanghai, and the questionnaire interviews were followed. The population size of PLWHA was further estimated by network scale-up method. Results: A total of 3 907 subjects, including 1 912 (48.9%) males and 1 995 (51.1%) females, were finally interviewed, and the mean age of the subjects was (40.54±11.69). The average social network size of studied subjects from Minhang district was 206. After the adjustment of backward method, it turned out to be 240. Based on the estimation of network scale-up method and attitude adjustment, the population size of PLWHA was 368 (95%CI: 291.19-444.17), which accounted for 0.03% of the total residents of Minhang district. Conclusion: The process of estimation of PLWHA population based on network scale-up method was relatively simple, but the results need adjustment appropriately. |
| Key words： | epidemiology; network scale-up method; AIDS; population size estimation |
| 发表期数： | 2017年3月第5期 |
| 引用格式： | 王俊，杨瑛，张铁军. 网络规模迭加法在艾滋病人群规模估计中的应用[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文，2017，10（5）：574-579. |
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