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基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的用地变化动态模拟

发表时间:2018-11-30  浏览量:58  下载量:11
全部作者: 邓明语,刘明皓,李玉婷
作者单位: 重庆邮电大学计算机科学与技术学院
摘 要: 以京津冀地区为例,基于2000年、2010年两期土地利用数据,构建Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型,结合自然、社会、政策约束等驱动因素对2020年和2030年京津冀的用地变化格局进行模拟预测。研究结果表明,在自然发展模式下,2010年至2030年的耕地、林地面积明显减少,人造地表面积增长迅速。在可持续发展模式下,2010年至2030年间,耕地、林地面积依然有所减少,但减少量远小于自然发展模式的情景;受政策约束条件的影响,人造地表面积的增长速度明显降低。本研究可为京津冀地区的土地规划、管理和决策提供参考,对保护和改善生态环境具有指导意义。
关 键 词: 计算机应用;京津冀;Logistic-CA-Markov;动态演变;情景模拟;土地利用
Title: Dynamic simulation of land use change based on Logistic-CA-Markov model
Author: DENG Mingyu, LIU Minghao, LI Yuting
Organization: College of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications
Abstract: Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, based on the land use data of 2000 and 2010, a Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model is constructed to simulate and predict the land use change pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2020 and 2030 with the combination of driving factors, such as natural, social and policy constraints. The results show that under the natural development model, the area of cultivated land and woodland would decrease obviously and the area of artificial surface would increase rapidly from 2010 to 2030. Under the sustainable development model, the area of cultivated land and woodland was still decreasing from 2010 to 2030, but the amount of decrease was much smaller than that of the natural development model. And the growth rate of artificial surface area obviously reduced under the influence of policy constraints. This study can provide the reference for land planning, management and decision making in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and has guiding significance for protecting and improving ecological environment.
Key words: computer applications; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; Logistic-CA-Markov; dynamic evolution; scenario simulation; land use
发表期数: 2018年11月第22期
引用格式: 邓明语,刘明皓,李玉婷. 基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的用地变化动态模拟[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2018,11(22):2220-2233.
 
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