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不同气候情景下玛纳斯河流域山区冰雪覆被 格局空间模拟

发表时间:2018-12-29  浏览量:476  下载量:58
全部作者: 焦浩洋,徐丽萍,张正勇
作者单位: 石河子大学理学院
摘 要: 为探讨未来高寒区冰雪覆被格局对地形、高程及气候因子的响应,以新疆玛纳斯河流域为研究样区,以玛纳斯河流域1970年至2000年的气候数据作为基准期数据,利用SRES A1B、A2和B1情景下区域气候模式的气候情景数据分析不同气候因素的影响,基于ArcGIS利用图形叠置法计算模拟分析了三种不同气候情景下的冰雪覆被格局。结果表明:1)玛纳斯河流域气温在时间上呈现波动性上升的趋势,在空间上呈现山区明显低于平原地区的态势;2)同一时间流域内冰雪覆被格局局部变化明显,且三种不同情景下的模拟分布图总体上呈现出相似的变化特征;3)玛纳斯河流域山区冰雪覆被格局对不同情景模式的气候响应存在差异。A2情景下山区冰雪覆被格局变化程度较A1B及B1情景更为明显。
关 键 词: 水文学;模拟;不同气候情景;冰雪覆被格局;玛纳斯河流域
Title: Spatial simulation of snow cover pattern in mountainous area of Manas river basin under different climate scenarios
Author: JIAO Haoyang, XU Liping, ZHANG Zhengyong
Organization: College of Sciences, Shihezi University
Abstract: In order to explore the response of snow cover pattern to topography, elevation and climatic factors in the future alpine region, the Manas river basin in Xinjiang was taken as the sample area, and the climatic data of the Manas river basin from 1970 to 2000 were taken as the baseline period data. The climatic scenario data of regional climatic models under SRES A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios were used to analyze the effects of different climatic factors. Based on ArcGIS, the snow cover patterns under three different climate scenarios were simulated and analyzed by using graphical overlay method. Results show that: 1) The temperature of Manas river basin has a rising volatility trends in time, but on the space, the temperature on mountain is significantly lower than that on the plain region. 2) At the same time, the local changes of snow cover pattern were obvious, and the simulated distribution diagrams of three different scenarios generally show similar variation characteristics. 3) The climate response of snow cover pattern in mountain area of Manas river basin is different under different scenario mode. The change in snow cover pattern of A2 scenario mountain area is significantly higher than A1B and B1 scenarios.
Key words: hydrology; simulation; different climate scenarios; snow cover pattern; the Manas river basin
发表期数: 2018年12月第24期
引用格式: 焦浩洋,徐丽萍,张正勇. 不同气候情景下玛纳斯河流域山区冰雪覆被 格局空间模拟[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2018,11(24):2487-2496.
 
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