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基于CART-CA模型的用地变化多尺度模拟——以长江三峡库区为例

发表时间:2019-03-22  浏览量:395  下载量:32
全部作者: 刘明皓,袁敏,冯源
作者单位: 重庆邮电大学计算机科学与技术学院,空间信息系统研究中心
摘 要: 尺度依赖被认为是普遍存在的空间现象,寻找最佳模拟尺度及其影响因素对优化用地变化模型、提高模拟精度具有重要意义。以长江三峡库区为例,构建基于CART-CA模型的用地动态变化模型,并检验多尺度下建模方法差异及地类均衡性对模拟精度的影响。采用CART-CA、DYNA-CLUE和Logistic-CA模型,分别基于200,300,500,800,1 000 m 5种分辨率数据和7类、5类、3类、2类用地分类方案实施模拟。结果显示:在7类、5类、3类、2类4种分类方案下,最佳模拟尺度依次为300,200,800,200 m;相同分类方案下的最佳模拟尺度不因采用模型的不同而不同;随着分辨率的降低,地类均衡度总体呈上升趋势;随着地类均衡度的升高,模拟精度降低。研究表明,CART-CA模型用于多用途土地利用格局变化的动态模拟时,模拟精度较高;用地动态变化模型在尺度上存在最佳分辨率;分类均衡性是产生用地动态模拟精度高低的重要原因,最佳模拟尺度会因分类均衡度的变化而导致不同。
关 键 词: 地理学;用地动态变化模拟;元胞自动机;分类回归树;多尺度;尺度效应
Title: Multiresolution simulation of land use change based on CART-CA model: a case study of the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir area
Author: LIU Minghao, YUAN Min, FENG Yuan
Organization: Research Center of Spatial Information System, College of Computer Science and Technology, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications
Abstract: Scale dependence is considered to be a ubiquitous spatial phenomenon. It is very important for optimizing the land use change model and improving the accuracy of simulation to find the best simulation resolution and its influencing factors. Taking the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the dynamic change model of land use based on CART-CA model was constructed. On this basis, multiresolution schemes of land use are designed to test the effects of different modeling methods and equilibrium of the land use types on the accuracy of simulation. Based on the five resolution data of 200, 300, 500, 800, 1 000 m, and the land use classification schemes of 7, 5, 3, 2 categories, CART-CA, DYNA-CLUE and Logistic-CA models are used to carry out simulation experiments respectively. Results show that the best simulation resolution in the study area is 300, 200, 800, 200 m, in turn, based on the above land classification schemes of 7, 5, 3, 2 categories, which means that the best simulation resolution under the same classification scheme will not be different from the different adopted models. And with the decrease of the resolution, the equilibrium degree of the land use types is generally on the rise, otherwise the simulation precision decreases with the increase of the equilibrium degree of the land use types. The research shows that CART-CA model has superior simulation precision which can be used for dynamic simulation of multi-purpose land use pattern change. There is an optimal resolution for the land use dynamic change model based on multiresolution. Classification equilibrium is an important reason for the accuracy of land use dynamic simulation. Therefore, the optimal simulation scale varies with the classification equilibrium.
Key words: geography; land use dynamic change simulation; cellular automata; classification and regression tree; multiresolution; scale effect
发表期数: 2019年2月第1期
引用格式: 刘明皓,袁敏,冯源. 基于CART-CA模型的用地变化多尺度模拟——以长江三峡库区为例[J]. 中国科技论文在线精品论文,2019,12(1):162-174.
 
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